Two notable cases help us understand investment decisions in high-growth contexts. On the one hand, Accel's early entry into Facebook, resulting in one of the highest multiples on invested capital in venture capital history. On the other, Peter Thiel's regret for not continuing to invest in the company, despite being the first to bet on its thesis.

Both episodes reveal important lessons about cognitive biases and everyday situations that affect even the most experienced investors.

Facebook's growth was often projected linearly, disregarding network effects and geographic expansion. Furthermore, subsequent valuations were anchored in previous rounds, ignoring structural changes already underway.

Cases like this show how the ability to review assumptions, perceive signals outside the consensus, and act with conviction in the face of subtle changes can be crucial in generating value in investments.