Private Credit Market – 4T25

Fixed Income Overview

1Q26 was marked by high instability in both the domestic and external scenarios. In Brazil, the Copom began the Selic rate cut cycle, in a more cautious move than previously priced in by the market, given the deterioration of inflation expectations. Focus Report projections for 2026 IPCA were revised upward, reaching 4.9%, reflecting the continued high pace of public spending and the effects of the conflict in the Middle East. Even so, the Ibovespa renewed its all-time high on several occasions during the quarter, supported by the strong foreign inflow, which totaled R$56.5 BN(1) in 1Q26 and exceeded the entire positive balance of the prior year, amid a global portfolio rotation toward emerging markets. This inflow, combined with the central bank's more restrictive stance and the broad weakening of the dollar, contributed to the real's 14.0% appreciation against the dollar over the past 12 months.

IDA-Geral (ANBIMA Debenture Index): index that mirrors the behavior of a theoretical private debt portfolio, made up of all mark-to-market debentures with a maturity of more than one month.
IMA (ANBIMA Market Index): index made up of a government bond portfolio with a composition similar to Brazil’s public debt.
IMA-B5 and IMA-B5+: made up of NTN-Bs (National Treasury Notes, Series B, or Treasury IPCA+ with Semiannual Interest) maturing within five years (IMA-B5) or beyond five years (IMA-B5+).

At the end of 1Q26, the Focus Report pointed to IPCA of 3.9% for 2026, close to the center of the 3.0% target. Since then, projections have been revised upward for more than ten consecutive weeks, reaching 4.9% in May/26 and exceeding the 4.5% tolerance band ceiling.

Source: BCB, B3, ANBIMA, Ártica Analysis

Note: ⁽¹⁾ According to Elos Ayta data, the indicator reached its highest level since 2022; and

⁽²⁾ Uses the ANBIMA projection for IPCA as of May/26.

Primary Fixed Income Market

Completed capital markets offerings totaled approximately R$180 BN in 1Q26, up 16% from the same period in 2025. The advance was led by hybrid and fixed income funds, which totaled R$45 BN, driven by FIDCs (+38%) and the recovery of FIIs (+147%), favored by expectations of falling interest rates and a more optimistic view of the real estate market. Fixed income instruments remained close to R$122 BN, with debentures continuing as the main instrument, totaling R$99 BN, while commercial notes reached R$9 BN. In contrast, CRIs and CRAs fell 28% and 39%, respectively, pressured by lower availability of real estate collateral and greater risk selectivity in agribusiness. Equities also gained traction, with approximately R$13 BN in follow-on offerings.

Source: ANBIMA, Ártica Analysis.

Note: ⁽¹⁾ Includes promissory notes, Rural Producer Certificate, Financial (CPR-F), receivables certificates (CR) and Agribusiness Receivables Certificates (CDCA).

Primary Fixed Income Market

1Q26 was marked by greater stress in the credit market, with heightened risk perception amid a record +5,900 companies in judicial reorganization, limiting the ability of small and mid-sized companies to raise funds on competitive terms. The average volume of closely-held issuances fell 51%, from R$690 MM in 1Q25 to R$338 MM, an effect amplified by 90 deals in the period, versus 75 in the prior one. At the same time, publicly-held companies raised their average ticket from R$983 MM to R$1.1 BN. The share of proceeds allocated to debt repayment fell from 21% to 16%. Even so, the market remains resilient in financing capital-intensive projects, supported by growing infrastructure investment, which accounted for 46% of the quarter's issuances.

Source: ANBIMA, Debentures.com, Ártica Analysis

Primary Fixed Income Market

In 1Q26, the average debenture term remained relatively stable, with a slight decline versus 4Q25, standing at 7.6 years. Commercial notes followed a similar pattern, with an average term of 3.6 years. Amid persistently high interest rates, a significant share of indexed issuances still carry nominal rates above 16% p.a. Volume raised in the quarter reached R$99 BN in debentures and R$9 BN in commercial notes, reflecting continued demand for long-term funding. Commercial notes have become established as a relevant financing instrument, particularly for companies without access to the debenture market, even though the subscriber base remains concentrated among parties linked to the offering. Even so, investment funds are beginning to participate in this market, already accounting for 16% of volume taken up in the first quarter.

Source: CVM, ANBIMA, Ártica Analysis

Note: ⁽¹⁾ Figures include debentures and tax-exempt debentures.

Tax-Exempt Debenture Market

First quarters historically show lower issuance volumes than other periods of the year. Even so, 1Q26 posted the second-highest volume in the historical series for the period, with tax-exempt debentures reaching R$44 BN and a record 43.8% share of total debentures issued. The instrument remains central to infrastructure project financing, with the power, transport and sanitation sectors accounting for 83% of issuances, led by power at 59%, in line with the concessions pipeline and continued investment in transmission and generation. In the secondary market, traded volume continued to expand, totaling R$99 BN in 1Q26, up 27% from 1Q25, reflecting investor appetite for tax-exempt assets and the instrument's greater liquidity.

Tax-exempt debentures remain an important instrument for financing certain sectors of the economy, since they are tax-exempt and create an incentive to purchase, reflecting the high secondary-market liquidity of these securities.

Secondary Fixed Income Market

In 1Q26, the private credit secondary market saw a sharp widening of spreads, with the Idex-CDI reaching a peak of 2.5%. The move was triggered by a series of out-of-court restructurings filed by companies such as GPA, Raízen and Andrade Gutierrez, which together involve more than R$80 BN in debt to be renegotiated in these proceedings, combined with rising delinquency in the National Financial System, which reached 4.44% in May/26. Since then, the index has gradually eased to 1.83%, still above the twelve-month average. This scenario was reflected in a broad widening of spreads in both IPCA+ and CDI-indexed transactions, in line with the deterioration in corporate risk perception and the higher premiums demanded by investors.

Source: ANBIMA, XP, Idex CDI, Ártica Analysis

Note: ⁽¹⁾ Distressed companies: Aeris, Braskem, CBD, Elfa Medicamentos, Kora Saude and Viveo;

⁽²⁾ As of 5/21; and

⁽³⁾ Average closing rate on 8/22 for 2Q25, on 11/24 for 3Q25, on 2/3 for 4Q25 and on 5/21 for 1Q26;

⁽⁴⁾ Equipav Saneamento and Aegea.

Investment Fund Overview

In 1Q26, investment funds reversed the redemption trend seen in 2025, with net inflows of R$177 BN in the quarter, versus R$9 BN in the same period of the prior year. The movement was led by fixed income, which attracted R$126 BN, more than doubling the volume of 1Q25, amid expectations for the start of the Selic rate cut cycle. FIPs and ETFs also stood out, with R$18 BN each, while FIDCs totaled R$8 BN. Equities and multimarket funds, historically under pressure, saw redemptions slow versus 1Q25, reflecting a gradual recovery in risk appetite. Total net assets reached R$11.1 TN, with broad-based growth across asset categories. In contrast, CDB/RDB was the only asset class to contract, down 4%, due to recent liquidation cases ordered by the BCB, which drove asset migration.

Source: ANBIMA, Ártica Analysis.

Note: ⁽¹⁾ Includes retroactive adjustments published by ANBIMA in the historical series;

⁽²⁾ In constant currency for the last month, deflated by the IGP-DI; and

⁽³⁾ DPGE, CCB/CCCB, options and promissory notes.