{"id":5794,"date":"2021-11-05T11:54:56","date_gmt":"2021-11-05T14:54:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/asset-cartas\/e-um-bom-momento-para-investir-no-fundo-artica\/"},"modified":"2025-08-19T10:47:24","modified_gmt":"2025-08-19T13:47:24","slug":"e-um-bom-momento-para-investir-no-fundo-artica","status":"publish","type":"cartas","link":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/en\/asset-cartas\/e-um-bom-momento-para-investir-no-fundo-artica\/","title":{"rendered":"Is it a good time to invest in the \u00c1rtica fund?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-eb5bab19 wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns artica-content-spaces artica-card-container is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-28f84493 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column artica-side-content is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:365px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group artica-carta-toc has-pureza-background-color has-background has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-09e94731 wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\" style=\"margin-bottom:0;padding-top:24px;padding-right:24px;padding-bottom:24px;padding-left:24px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<nav class=\"wp-block-pycblocks-table-of-contents-pyc artica-toc artica-carta-toc has-rocha-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-9574f1197cb2fbb062fd229fd32f0814\"><ol><li><span class=\"wp-block-table-of-contents__entry\">Is it a good time to invest in the \u00c1rtica fund?<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"wp-block-table-of-contents__entry\">Methodology<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"wp-block-table-of-contents__entry\">Results<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"wp-block-table-of-contents__entry\">Considerations and conclusion<\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/nav>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<div style=\"font-size:12px; padding-right:40px;padding-left:40px;\" class=\"wp-block-pycblocks-read-time-pyc\">\n      5&nbsp; min de leitura<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:70px\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column artica-carta-text is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-noite-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-16f80c8b4fee96cc791150c0d39bf6d6\">Is it a good time to invest in the \u00c1rtica fund?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Dear investors,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We&#039;re frequently asked by our shareholders: &quot;Is now a good time to make new contributions to the fund?&quot; Even among us, before this study, there was no consensus on this answer. Internally, some preferred to wait for the &quot;ideal moment&quot; to contribute, while others preferred to contribute smaller amounts more frequently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With this in mind, we decided to simulate the return of two investment strategies in (A) the Ibovespa index, since the beginning of the Plano Real (July\/1994), and in (B) the \u00c1rtica Long Term FIA fund, since its founding (June\/2013): strategy (i) <em>buy the dip<\/em>, where you know exactly what the minimum point of the index is between two maximum points \u2013 and while you are not investing, the money yields 100% of the CDI \u2013 and (ii) recurring contributions, where the same contribution is made monthly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although we intuitively imagine that the first strategy would be much superior to the second, we were surprised to note that the recurring contribution strategy is not far behind, even though the <em>buy the dip<\/em> assume an unrealistic situation of having perfect information and historically interest rates in Brazil being high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Methodology<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>To perform this simulation, we consider an individual who has R$1,000 (in 2021 current currency) available to invest each month. Furthermore, since July 1994, this individual has received a salary adjustment once a year equivalent to the IPCA for the period, also adjusting their available investment amount.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For strategy (i) <em>buy the dip<\/em>, the individual buys shares of Ibovespa\/\u00c1rtica Long Term FIA exactly at least between two periods of <em>all time high<\/em>, that is, at the lowest value between the maximum peaks. During the period in which he does not make this investment, he invests his amount in fixed income, yielding after-tax 85% of the CDI<a href=\"https:\/\/www.articacapital.com.br\/beta\/carta\/e-um-bom-momento-para-investir-no-fundo-artica#_ftn1\" name=\"_ftnref1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">[1]<\/a> until a new purchase occurs. Furthermore, there are no sales of shares once purchased (<em>buy and hold<\/em>). Below, you can graphically view the purchase periods and the total cash balance (invested in CDI) available in the portfolio for the simulation of the Ibovespa and \u00c1rtica Long Term FIA:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>1<\/sup> We are considering a yield of 100% of CDI and an Income Tax rate of 15%, resulting in 85% net of CDI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"553\" height=\"311\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/e-um-bom-momento-para-investir-no-fundo-artica-01.webp\" alt=\"-\" class=\"wp-image-5788\" srcset=\"https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/e-um-bom-momento-para-investir-no-fundo-artica-01.webp 553w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/e-um-bom-momento-para-investir-no-fundo-artica-01-300x169.webp 300w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/e-um-bom-momento-para-investir-no-fundo-artica-01-18x10.webp 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 553px) 100vw, 553px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Graph 1.A \u2013 graphical representation of strategy purchases (i) <em>buy the dip <\/em>\u2013 Ibovespa<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"553\" height=\"310\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/e-um-bom-momento-para-investir-no-fundo-artica-02.webp\" alt=\"-\" class=\"wp-image-5789\" srcset=\"https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/e-um-bom-momento-para-investir-no-fundo-artica-02.webp 553w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/e-um-bom-momento-para-investir-no-fundo-artica-02-300x168.webp 300w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/e-um-bom-momento-para-investir-no-fundo-artica-02-18x10.webp 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 553px) 100vw, 553px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Chart 1.B \u2013 graphical representation of purchases from the (i) buy the dip strategy \u2013 \u00c1rtica Long Term FIA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For the second recurring contribution strategy, the individual purchases all available funds in Ibovespa shares on the first day of each month, regardless of market conditions. Below, you can graphically visualize the purchase periods for the Ibovespa and \u00c1rtica Long Term FIA:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"531\" height=\"300\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/e-um-bom-momento-para-investir-no-fundo-artica-03.webp\" alt=\"-\" class=\"wp-image-5790\" srcset=\"https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/e-um-bom-momento-para-investir-no-fundo-artica-03.webp 531w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/e-um-bom-momento-para-investir-no-fundo-artica-03-300x169.webp 300w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/e-um-bom-momento-para-investir-no-fundo-artica-03-18x10.webp 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 531px) 100vw, 531px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gr\u00e1fico 2.A \u2013 representa\u00e7\u00e3o gr\u00e1fica das compras da estrat\u00e9gia (ii) aportes recorrentes \u2013 Ibovespa<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"529\" height=\"289\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/e-um-bom-momento-para-investir-no-fundo-artica-04.webp\" alt=\"-\" class=\"wp-image-5791\" srcset=\"https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/e-um-bom-momento-para-investir-no-fundo-artica-04.webp 529w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/e-um-bom-momento-para-investir-no-fundo-artica-04-300x164.webp 300w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/e-um-bom-momento-para-investir-no-fundo-artica-04-18x10.webp 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 529px) 100vw, 529px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gr\u00e1fico 2.B \u2013 representa\u00e7\u00e3o gr\u00e1fica das compras da estrat\u00e9gia (ii) aportes recorrentes \u2013 \u00c1rtica Long Term FIA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Results<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Using October 1, 2021 as the end date of the analysis, we have the following results for different start dates:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"554\" height=\"298\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/e-um-bom-momento-para-investir-no-fundo-artica-05.webp\" alt=\"-\" class=\"wp-image-5792\" srcset=\"https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/e-um-bom-momento-para-investir-no-fundo-artica-05.webp 554w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/e-um-bom-momento-para-investir-no-fundo-artica-05-300x161.webp 300w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/e-um-bom-momento-para-investir-no-fundo-artica-05-18x10.webp 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 554px) 100vw, 554px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Chart 3 \u2013 results of strategies for different start periods<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since the Real Plan, for the Ibovespa the strategy <em>buy the dip<\/em> obtained a nominal annual return of 12.4%, +1.5p.p. above the recurring contribution strategy, or in other words, the recurring strategy obtained 88% of the total return of the strategy <em>buy the dip<\/em>. For \u00c1rtica Long Term FIA, since its founding in June 2013, the recurring contribution strategy has obtained 97% of the strategy&#039;s return <em>buy the dip<\/em> \u2013 which obtained a return of 44.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Considerations and conclusion<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Some considerations need to be made regarding the results obtained. The first is that it is simply impossible to consistently predict the <em>timing<\/em> perfect for making strategic contributions <em>buy the dip<\/em>. If there were a 30-day advance in contributions, the recurring strategy would obtain 94% of the strategy&#039;s return <em>buy the dip<\/em> for the Ibovespa, as can be seen in the graph below, where the annualized nominal returns are simulated if the contribution varied +\/- days in relation to the date of the <em>dip<\/em> consistently for the Ibovespa and for the \u00c1rtica Long Term FIA:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"561\" height=\"153\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/e-um-bom-momento-para-investir-no-fundo-artica-06.webp\" alt=\"-\" class=\"wp-image-5793\" srcset=\"https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/e-um-bom-momento-para-investir-no-fundo-artica-06.webp 561w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/e-um-bom-momento-para-investir-no-fundo-artica-06-300x82.webp 300w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/e-um-bom-momento-para-investir-no-fundo-artica-06-18x5.webp 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 561px) 100vw, 561px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Graph 4 \u2013 strategy results for different errors<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This result is interesting because it demonstrates, especially for the Ibovespa, that a small deviation already brings the profitability closer to the recurring contribution. For \u00c1rtica Long Term FIA, given its consistent results, the variation is smaller, since the share delivered good returns at different entry points.<sup>2<\/sup>In this context, it&#039;s also important to consider that, as human beings, we will certainly fail in our investment discipline throughout our wealth accumulation period. A slip-up in strategy &quot;<em>buy the dip<\/em>&quot;, such as missing one or two windows for a new investment, can have a much greater impact on the portfolio&#039;s final return than one or two months in which we fail to make a recurring investment. Another consequence of this is the stress of keeping an eye on the market, trying to predict whether it has already reached its peak. <em>bottom<\/em> apparently does not compensate for the expected extra return.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The second consideration is that interest rates in Brazil in the late 1990s and early 20th century were structurally higher, which improved the profitability of the strategy&#039;s money. <em>buy the dip<\/em> that was not invested. From the beginning of the Real Plan in 1994 until the end of 2010, the CDI yielded 21% per year. Even with the most recent upward trend in interest rates in Brazil, the market consensus still points to an interest rate level of 10.25% per year by the end of 2022, well below the historical average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The third consideration is that if the Ibovespa had a more continuous upward trend and we excluded periods in which the stock market had strong <em>drawdowns<\/em>, the recurring contribution strategy would be even closer to the strategy <em>buy the dip<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Within the management firm, we frequently question the ideal investment strategy for \u00c1rtica Long Term FIA. It&#039;s worth remembering that a significant portion of the personal wealth of many of \u00c1rtica&#039;s partners and employees is invested in the fund. Among our founding partners, we have some who have historically advocated for recurring contributions and others who preferred to wait for the apparent greatest discount to invest. We analyzed the returns for both, and the result was unusual: for the first, who has made 51 contributions since the fund&#039;s inception, the annualized IRR is 41.4%. For the second, who has made 23 contributions seeking to be more assertive during downturns, the annualized IRR is 40.0%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The purpose of this letter is not to provide a definitive answer to the topic, and we understand that the research is not exhaustive. But the main finding is valid: the recurring contribution strategy has a profitability sufficiently close to the best. <em>timing<\/em> possible, you don&#039;t need to frantically follow the stock market and political news and you free up space for your professional and personal development \u2013 while the <em>compounding<\/em> does its job.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>2<\/sup>Rentabilidade passada n\u00e3o \u00e9 garantia de retorno futuro.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Na carta deste m\u00eas, mostramos que aportes regulares no \u00c1rtica t\u00eam performance muito pr\u00f3xima ao \u201ctiming perfeito\u201d, estrat\u00e9gia dif\u00edcil de executar. Disciplina e const\u00e2ncia superam a tentativa de prever o fundo do mercado. Com cen\u00e1rio atual, investir no fundo agora \u00e9 uma \u00f3tima decis\u00e3o, sem esperar o momento ideal.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5787,"template":"","meta":[],"class_list":["post-5794","cartas","type-cartas","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/cartas\/5794","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/cartas"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/cartas"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5787"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5794"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}