{"id":5776,"date":"2021-08-09T11:42:32","date_gmt":"2021-08-09T14:42:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/asset-cartas\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider\/"},"modified":"2025-08-19T10:48:33","modified_gmt":"2025-08-19T13:48:33","slug":"acoes-com-compras-de-insider","status":"publish","type":"cartas","link":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/en\/asset-cartas\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider\/","title":{"rendered":"Stocks with insider purchases"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-eb5bab19 wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns artica-content-spaces artica-card-container is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-28f84493 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column artica-side-content is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:365px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group artica-carta-toc has-pureza-background-color has-background has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-09e94731 wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\" style=\"margin-bottom:0;padding-top:24px;padding-right:24px;padding-bottom:24px;padding-left:24px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<nav class=\"wp-block-pycblocks-table-of-contents-pyc artica-toc artica-carta-toc has-rocha-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-3e50432edbed1b7e9e91e7a637701c00\"><ol><li><span class=\"wp-block-table-of-contents__entry\">Stocks with insider purchases<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"wp-block-table-of-contents__entry\">O que s\u00e3o compras de insider<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"wp-block-table-of-contents__entry\">Resultados de pesquisas sobre o tema<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"wp-block-table-of-contents__entry\">Transa\u00e7\u00f5es de insider na pr\u00e1tica<\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/nav>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<div style=\"font-size:12px; padding-right:40px;padding-left:40px;\" class=\"wp-block-pycblocks-read-time-pyc\">\n      7&nbsp; min de leitura<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:70px\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column artica-carta-text is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-noite-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-842a5c4e8d667e726c29d4b4534150e5\">Stocks with insider purchases<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Dear investors,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>An analysis that we consider to be quite relevant for investment decision-making is to evaluate the level of purchases by people who know the company&#039;s operations and numbers internally \u2013 the <em>Insiders<\/em>. This information is useful both because the <em>insiders<\/em> They are the ones who know the company best and, in theory, would be able to estimate its fair value more accurately, as it is always desirable to invest in companies in which the main decision-makers are aligned with their shareholders through the investment of their assets in the business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this month&#039;s letter, we explore the topic and provide some research based on historical data that supports our view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cInsiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons, but they buy them for only one: they think the price will rise\u201d<\/em> \u2013 <strong>Peter Lynch<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">O que s\u00e3o compras de <em>insider<\/em><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Insiders<\/em> is the English term used to designate people with access to key company information, such as controllers, directors, and officers. Because they possess &quot;privileged&quot; information, they are subject to specific trading rules\u2014for example, they cannot buy or sell shares close to quarterly earnings announcements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Brazil, CVM Instruction 358 regulates such transactions and establishes that they cannot be carried out in the 15 days prior to the disclosure of companies&#039; financial information and before the disclosure of material facts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Conceptually, they would be better positioned than the market to assess the value of their company, so purchases made by them could indicate when they believe there are good opportunities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Such information may be of various natures. Examples include temporary changes in business conditions (e.g., improvements in the industry&#039;s competitive dynamics; growth in the volume of orders for new products; price increases; cost reduction programs) or a better assessment of the company&#039;s true value (e.g., <em>turnaround<\/em> successful in some subsidiary that operates at a loss; M&amp;A operations; profit growth when new product development costs are over).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Resultados de pesquisas sobre o tema<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Returns associated with purchases of <em>Insiders<\/em> have been analyzed in numerous academic studies over several decades. In all cases, the evidence shows that, in fact, purchases of <em>Insiders<\/em> tend to be good predictors of future stock profitability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The table below presents the results of 5 studies carried out in the USA in the 1950s, 60s and 70s. In all cases, the companies selected for the study were those that presented purchasing volumes of <em>insider<\/em> that significantly exceeded the sales volume of <em>insiders<\/em>. It was also considered an investment strategy in the stock shortly after the information about the purchase of <em>insider<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Tabela 1 \u2013 Retornos de a\u00e7\u00f5es compradas logo ap\u00f3s a compra de insiders<sup>1<\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"224\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider-01.webp\" alt=\"-\" class=\"wp-image-5770\" srcset=\"https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider-01.webp 1024w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider-01-300x66.webp 300w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider-01-768x168.webp 768w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider-01-18x4.webp 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Some of the best-known studies on the topic of transactions <em>Insiders<\/em> were conducted in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s by Nejat Seyhun, a professor at the University of Michigan. Based on his studies, Seyhun published a book on the subject: <em>\u201cInvestment Intelligence from Insider Trading\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the book, the author presents some interesting conclusions from his studies:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The table below presents the return of stocks compared to market indices in the 12 months following the announcement of a purchase or sale event. <em>insiders<\/em>. In the study, the author selected only operations that had no conflicting transactions in the previous 3 months (i.e., a company with a purchase of <em>insider<\/em> which had sales of <em>insider<\/em> in the previous 3 months are excluded from the sample; the same applies to companies with sales of <em>insider<\/em>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Table 2 \u2013 Stock returns 12 months after purchase or sale of <em>insiders<\/em><sup>2<\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"161\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider-02.webp\" alt=\"-\" class=\"wp-image-5771\" srcset=\"https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider-02.webp 1024w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider-02-300x47.webp 300w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider-02-768x121.webp 768w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider-02-18x3.webp 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In addition to proving the results of previously conducted studies, the table also shows that purchasing operations <em>insider<\/em> has greater predictive value than sales of <em>insiders<\/em>. The reason is that a sale can be motivated by several factors that are independent of the fundamentals of the action (e.g.: the need to withdraw resources to buy an apartment, a car, make a new investment), while a purchase will only be made if the <em>insider<\/em> see an opportunity to make money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The author&#039;s studies covered the period from 1975 to 1994. In it, it was possible to observe that throughout the entire sample period, transactions of <em>insider<\/em> proved to be good predictors of future returns, without showing any downward trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even more recent studies continue to point in the same direction. A landmark 2011 article by Kaspar Dardas of the European Business School analyzed transactions of <em>insider<\/em> in the period from Jan\/2002 to Dec\/2009. The study showed that purchases defined as \u201chigh conviction\u201d<sup>3<\/sup> were associated with returns on average 20.9% higher than market indices in the 12 months following the publication of the purchase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A very important point to consider in the analysis is the position of the <em>Insiders<\/em>. In the reports published by companies listed on B3, there is a distinction between three positions: directors, members of the board of directors, and controllers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The evidence shows that directors are the ones who best trade their companies&#039; shares, followed by advisors and controllers, as shown in the table below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Table 3 \u2013 Returns according to the position of the <em>insider<\/em><sup>4<\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"199\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider-03.webp\" alt=\"-\" class=\"wp-image-5772\" srcset=\"https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider-03.webp 1024w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider-03-300x58.webp 300w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider-03-768x149.webp 768w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider-03-18x3.webp 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The reason for this distinction is their proximity to information. Directors are responsible for key decision-making and are involved in critical company activities on a day-to-day basis. Board members are a little further away from the source of information, but actively participate in the company&#039;s key strategic decisions. Controllers, on the other hand, often have access to company information through directors or board members, which reduces their advantage when trading shares.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One <em>finding<\/em> interesting thing about the study is that purchases of <em>insider<\/em> in small companies it has greater predictive power than in large companies, as shown in the table below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Table 4 \u2013 Returns according to company size<sup>5<\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"224\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider-04.webp\" alt=\"-\" class=\"wp-image-5773\" srcset=\"https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider-04.webp 1024w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider-04-300x66.webp 300w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider-04-768x168.webp 768w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider-04-18x4.webp 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>As seen in the table above, <em>insiders<\/em> of small companies are able to obtain profits that exceed the profits of <em>insider<\/em>s of large companies by an impressive 4 times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are two hypotheses to explain this phenomenon. The first is that small companies are less covered by the market, so their market value tends to be farther from their intrinsic value more often, giving the <em>insider<\/em> greater opportunities to profit from such deviations. The second hypothesis is that new events tend to be more significant in small companies than in large ones. For example, a new product about to be launched and expected annual profit of R$100 million will have a much greater impact on a company with a market capitalization of R$1.0 billion than on one with a market capitalization of R$100 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Transa\u00e7\u00f5es de <em>insider<\/em> in practice<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>For illustrative purposes, we have compiled transactions from <em>insider<\/em> of all companies listed on the stock exchange between July 2019 and June 2020 (we have a robot for this). The results are presented in the table below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Chart 1 \u2013 % of companies listed on B3 that are net buyers or sellers of shares<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"480\" height=\"244\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider-05.webp\" alt=\"-\" class=\"wp-image-5774\" srcset=\"https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider-05.webp 480w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider-05-300x153.webp 300w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider-05-18x9.webp 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 480px) 100vw, 480px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>What is striking is that the number of companies with purchases of <em>insider<\/em> increased substantially in the months of March and April. In other words, the <em>Insiders<\/em> They proved to be excellent investors in the initial period of the Covid-19 pandemic, buying shares precisely at the time of the greatest drop in the stock market (probably realizing that the market reaction was exaggerated and the pandemic was not affecting business as much as initially feared).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>An interesting specific case that occurred in 2020 was that of the company Portobello (ticker PTBL3). As of April 2020, <em>Insiders<\/em> of the company began to buy shares in significant volumes. What caught attention was that the company had no history of purchasing <em>insider<\/em>, and suddenly, there were purchases by directors, board members, and the controlling shareholder. Even more significant was that the purchases continued for several months until March 2021. The result: the stock went from a level of R$ 2.83 at the beginning of the purchases to a value of R$ 12.00 when the sales began in April 2021 \u2013 an increase of more than 4x in one year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Graph 2 \u2013 Purchases of <em>insider<\/em> vs share price appreciation (PTBL4)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"615\" height=\"362\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider-06.webp\" alt=\"-\" class=\"wp-image-5775\" srcset=\"https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider-06.webp 615w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider-06-300x177.webp 300w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-com-compras-de-insider-06-18x12.webp 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 615px) 100vw, 615px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>As demonstrated above, transactions of<em> insider <\/em>can bring good <em>insights<\/em> about potential investment opportunities. Therefore, we actively monitor such transactions to choose the best stocks for our portfolio. Obviously, an investment decision is never based solely on this criterion, but rather on knowing that <em>insiders<\/em> are buying shares in their companies is a great reinforcement for our theses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>1<\/sup> Studies referred to in the table are listed below and were compiled in an article by <em>Tweedy, Browne Company LLC<\/em>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Donald T. Rogoff, \u201cThe Forecasting Properties of Insider Transactions,\u201d Michigan State University, 1964;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Gary S. Glass, \u201cExtensive Insider Accumulation as an Indicator of Near Term Stock Price Performance,\u201d Ohio State University, 1966;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Charles W. Devere, Jr., \u201cRelationship Between Insider Trading and Future Performance of NYSE Common Stocks 1960 \u2013 1965\u201d, Portland State College, 1968;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Jeffrey F.Jaffe, \u201cSpecial Information and Insider Trading,\u201d Journal of Business, July 1974;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Martin E. Zweig, \u201cCanny Insiders: Their Transactions Give a Clue to Market Performance,\u201d Barron\u2019s, July 21, 1976.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>2<\/sup> Source: Nejat Seyhun, \u201cInvestment Intelligence from Insider Trading\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>3<\/sup> The author defines \u201chigh conviction\u201d purchases based on a series of parameters that include the position of the <em>insider<\/em>, the financial volume and the recurrence of the purchase<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>4<\/sup> The sample size differs from Table 2 because the study in Table 3 does not exclude trades that had opposing transactions in the previous three months. Source: Nejat Seyhun, \u201cInvestment Intelligence from Insider Trading\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>5<\/sup> The sample size differs from Table 2 because the study in Table 3 does not exclude trades that had opposing transactions in the previous three months. Source: Nejat Seyhun, \u201cInvestment Intelligence from Insider Trading\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Na carta deste m\u00eas, mostramos que compras de insiders s\u00e3o fortes indicadores de valoriza\u00e7\u00e3o futura das a\u00e7\u00f5es. Estudos hist\u00f3ricos comprovam que essas compras geram retornos superiores, especialmente em empresas menores, menos cobertas pelo mercado. Monitorar essas transa\u00e7\u00f5es ajuda a refor\u00e7ar decis\u00f5es de investimento e identificar oportunidades.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5769,"template":"","meta":[],"class_list":["post-5776","cartas","type-cartas","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/cartas\/5776","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/cartas"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/cartas"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5769"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5776"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}