{"id":5749,"date":"2021-04-26T11:29:10","date_gmt":"2021-04-26T14:29:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/asset-cartas\/acoes-como-hedge-de-inflacao\/"},"modified":"2026-10-21T09:52:37","modified_gmt":"2026-10-21T12:52:37","slug":"acoes-como-hedge-de-inflacao","status":"publish","type":"cartas","link":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/en\/asset-cartas\/acoes-como-hedge-de-inflacao\/","title":{"rendered":"Stocks as an inflation hedge"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-99ea131e wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns artica-content-spaces artica-card-container is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-7387b849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column artica-side-content is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:365px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group artica-carta-toc has-pureza-background-color has-background has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-9ae62f8f wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\" style=\"margin-bottom:0;padding-top:24px;padding-right:24px;padding-bottom:24px;padding-left:24px\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<nav class=\"wp-block-pycblocks-table-of-contents-pyc artica-toc artica-carta-toc has-rocha-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-1\"><ol><li><span class=\"wp-block-table-of-contents__entry\">Stocks as an inflation hedge<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"wp-block-table-of-contents__entry\">Why do stocks perform well in different inflation scenarios?<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"wp-block-table-of-contents__entry\">What does the evidence show for Brazil?<\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/nav>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n<div style=\"font-size:12px;padding-right:40px;padding-left:40px\" class=\"wp-block-pycblocks-read-time-pyc\">\n      4&nbsp; min de leitura<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:70px\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column artica-carta-text is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-noite-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-2\">Stocks as a <em>hedge<\/em> against inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dear investors,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Concern about a possible return of inflation has been growing around the world. Brazil is no different: inflation expectations for 2021 have risen consistently in recent weeks. The latest Focus report already points to an expected IPCA of 4.85% in 2021 (compared with 3.32% at the beginning of the year) and, in an attempt to address the situation, the Central Bank raised the Selic rate from 2.0% to 2.75% in the last cycle. Economists still expect further rounds of interest rate increases by the end of the year. These levels of interest rates and inflation are still far below what we experienced in Brazil for many years, but perhaps precisely because of our history, any sign of a return of inflation is viewed with concern. Against this backdrop, in this report we seek to show how stocks behave in inflationary environments, based on historical evidence that supports our view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the chart below, we once again present an analysis we showed in our May 2020 letter (\u201cStocks vs. Fixed Income \u2013 Part 1\u201d), which shows the returns of several asset classes in the US market over the very long term. The chart presents the inflation-adjusted historical return over the period 1800-2012.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1422\" height=\"721\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-como-hedge-de-inflacao-01.webp\" alt=\"-\" class=\"wp-image-5745\" srcset=\"https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-como-hedge-de-inflacao-01.webp 1422w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-como-hedge-de-inflacao-01-300x152.webp 300w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-como-hedge-de-inflacao-01-1024x519.webp 1024w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-como-hedge-de-inflacao-01-768x389.webp 768w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-como-hedge-de-inflacao-01-18x9.webp 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1422px) 100vw, 1422px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The chart illustrates how stock returns are remarkably stable over the very long term, growing practically in a straight line (logarithmic scale) with small fluctuations over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What is interesting to note in the chart is that the analysis can be divided into two very different periods in terms of inflation. Until the 1930s, the price level in the US was practically the same as in the year 1800 (there was no inflation for a period of 130 years!), and since then price levels have risen consistently, with inflation every year. Even in such different inflation scenarios, the real return of stocks was practically the same in both periods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Chart 2 below shows accumulated inflation in the US over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1395\" height=\"662\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-como-hedge-de-inflacao-02.webp\" alt=\"-\" class=\"wp-image-5746\" srcset=\"https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-como-hedge-de-inflacao-02.webp 1395w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-como-hedge-de-inflacao-02-300x142.webp 300w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-como-hedge-de-inflacao-02-1024x486.webp 1024w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-como-hedge-de-inflacao-02-768x364.webp 768w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-como-hedge-de-inflacao-02-18x9.webp 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1395px) 100vw, 1395px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The reason for this drastic change in inflation was the end of the gold standard in the United States and the United Kingdom, which gave central banks the flexibility to increase the money supply in the economy. This greater flexibility brings some benefits, as it allows stimulative monetary policies in times of crisis, but, on the other hand, it also brings the risk of inflation. Chart 1 also highlights this effect since, until the 1930s, the values of gold and the dollar were closely linked. This link has ceased to exist since then.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why do stocks perform well in different inflation scenarios?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Stocks represent ownership stakes in companies, and the value of such companies is linked to the price of the goods and services they offer. Since the increase in the price of such goods and services is what makes up inflation, stocks are naturally protected against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The evidence shows that this finding holds true in the long run, but not in the short run. The charts below show the real returns of stocks in different inflation environments, in two scenarios: (1) long term (30-year investment period) and (2) short term (1-year investment period).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1022\" height=\"838\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-como-hedge-de-inflacao-03.webp\" alt=\"-\" class=\"wp-image-5747\" srcset=\"https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-como-hedge-de-inflacao-03.webp 1022w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-como-hedge-de-inflacao-03-300x246.webp 300w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-como-hedge-de-inflacao-03-768x630.webp 768w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-como-hedge-de-inflacao-03-15x12.webp 15w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1022px) 100vw, 1022px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The data indicate that, as noted earlier, over sufficiently long periods the inflationary environment matters little in determining stock returns. In the short term, however, stocks end up benefiting when inflation is low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are a few reasons that explain this poor performance in the short term. One of them is that, with higher inflation, central banks are expected to raise interest rates, which, in turn, is usually followed by an economic slowdown and a consequent decline in stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Another important reason is that, in many situations, price increases do not spread simultaneously across all sectors, hurting the performance of companies that have greater difficulty passing on price increases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One example was the oil shock of the 1970s. At the time, because of supply restrictions in the OPEC countries, the price of the commodity more than tripled in a few months. This increase put pressure on the costs and margins of many companies, which took years to pass the price increase on to their customers, which in turn put pressure on their market value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This situation leads us to an important conclusion: companies with pricing power are naturally protected in inflationary scenarios because they are able to absorb cost increases more easily.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00b2Source: Stocks for the Long Run, Jeremy J. Siegel (2014)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What does the evidence show for Brazil?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As in the United States, investments in stocks in Brazil have historically been quite profitable, although much more volatile. This level of return was achieved despite a past of hyperinflation lasting many years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From the creation of the Ibovespa, in Jan\/1968, to Mar\/2021, the Ibovespa delivered a real return (above inflation) in dollars of 26.3 times (equivalent to an annual rate of 6.33% p.a.), compared with 25.3 times for the S&amp;P 500 (6.26% p.a.) over the same period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1261\" height=\"772\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-como-hedge-de-inflacao-04.webp\" alt=\"-\" class=\"wp-image-5748\" srcset=\"https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-como-hedge-de-inflacao-04.webp 1261w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-como-hedge-de-inflacao-04-300x184.webp 300w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-como-hedge-de-inflacao-04-1024x627.webp 1024w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-como-hedge-de-inflacao-04-768x470.webp 768w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/acoes-como-hedge-de-inflacao-04-18x12.webp 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1261px) 100vw, 1261px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At \u00c1rtica, we focus our investments on great businesses, and one of the characteristics that define such businesses is the ability to pass on prices in the most adverse environments. This selection criterion, combined with our long-term focus, is how we seek to protect ourselves against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00b3Source: \u00c1rtica analysis; data presented for the period between Jan\/68 (inception of the Ibovespa) and Mar\/21; S&amp;P considering dividend reinvestment (SP500TR), whose data are presented annually between 1968-88 and monthly from 1988 onward<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Na carta deste m\u00eas, mostramos que a\u00e7\u00f5es funcionam como hedge contra infla\u00e7\u00e3o no longo prazo, pois representam empresas que conseguem repassar aumentos de custo aos clientes. Apesar da volatilidade no curto prazo, no Brasil e nos EUA elas entregam retornos reais consistentes mesmo em cen\u00e1rios inflacion\u00e1rios. Focamos em neg\u00f3cios com forte poder de precifica\u00e7\u00e3o para proteger nossos investimentos.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5744,"template":"","meta":[],"class_list":["post-5749","cartas","type-cartas","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/cartas\/5749","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/cartas"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/cartas"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5744"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5749"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}