{"id":4235,"date":"2022-08-30T11:06:00","date_gmt":"2022-08-30T14:06:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/asset-videos\/clube-do-livro-superforecasting\/"},"modified":"2025-08-21T12:57:02","modified_gmt":"2025-08-21T15:57:02","slug":"clube-do-livro-superforecasting","status":"publish","type":"aam-videos","link":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/en\/asset-videos\/clube-do-livro-superforecasting\/","title":{"rendered":"Book Club \u2013 Superforecasting"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-content-justification-left is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-133fd709 wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Book Club - Superforecasting\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/99INGS4RaAA?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The \u00c1rtica Long Term management team discusses the book &quot;Superforecasting \u2013 The Art and Science of Prediction,&quot; by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. The book presents Tetlock&#039;s conclusions, based on decades of research: those who are best at predicting future events aren&#039;t super geniuses using sophisticated systems. In fact, people with profiles very different from what we would imagine as &quot;gurus&quot; have achieved impressively above-average accuracy rates. Among them are a retired Department of Agriculture employee, a former IBM programmer, also retired, and a young film director. What unites the members of this select group are certain ways of thinking and analytical methods, which can be learned and practiced by anyone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-pureza-background-color has-background is-layout-grid wp-container-core-group-is-layout-90834c91 wp-block-group-is-layout-grid\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-vertical is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-d2a5859e wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\" style=\"padding-top:58px;padding-right:40px;padding-bottom:58px;padding-left:40px\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" style=\"font-size:24px;letter-spacing:-0.25px\">Watch more videos from \u00c1rtica<\/h3>\n\n\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@articainvest?sub_confirmation=1\" style=\"font-size:16px;font-style:normal;font-weight:300;\" class=\"is-style-link wp-block-pycblocks-buttonpyc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"text-wrap: nowrap; margin-right:8px;\">Go to Youtube<\/span><span style=\"display:inline-flex;align-items:center;justify-content:center;fill:#000000;color:#000000;width:14px;height:14px;max-height:14px;vertical-align:middle;flex-shrink:0;\"><svg width=\"20\" height=\"20\" viewbox=\"0 0 20 20\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><rect width=\"20\" height=\"20\" fill-opacity=\"0.01\" style=\"mix-blend-mode:multiply\"\/><path d=\"M11.25 3.75L10.3562 4.62063L15.0938 9.375H2.5V10.625H15.0938L10.3562 15.3581L11.25 16.25L17.5 10L11.25 3.75Z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cover is-light wp-container-content-3a6eef98\" style=\"min-height:203px;aspect-ratio:unset;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"778\" class=\"wp-block-cover__image-background wp-image-1042 size-large\" alt=\"-\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/perspectiva-da-pessoa-que-cria-conteudos-de-viagens-com-o-smartphone-1024x778.jpg\" data-object-fit=\"cover\" srcset=\"https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/perspectiva-da-pessoa-que-cria-conteudos-de-viagens-com-o-smartphone-1024x778.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/perspectiva-da-pessoa-que-cria-conteudos-de-viagens-com-o-smartphone-300x228.jpg 300w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/perspectiva-da-pessoa-que-cria-conteudos-de-viagens-com-o-smartphone-768x583.jpg 768w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/perspectiva-da-pessoa-que-cria-conteudos-de-viagens-com-o-smartphone-1536x1166.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/artica.capital\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/perspectiva-da-pessoa-que-cria-conteudos-de-viagens-com-o-smartphone-2048x1555.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><span aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-cover__background has-background-dim-0 has-background-dim\"><\/span><div class=\"wp-block-cover__inner-container is-layout-flow wp-block-cover-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-large-font-size\"><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>O time de gest\u00e3o do \u00c1rtica Long Term discute o livro &#8220;Superforecasting &#8211; The Art and Science of Prediction&#8221;, dos autores Philip Tetlock e Dan Gardner. O livro exp\u00f5e as conclus\u00f5es de Tetlock ap\u00f3s d\u00e9cadas de pesquisa: os melhores em prever eventos futuros n\u00e3o s\u00e3o super g\u00eanios usando sistemas sofisticados. Inclusive, pessoas com perfil muito distinto do que imaginar\u00edamos como \u201cgurus\u201d atingiram taxas de acerto impressionantemente acima da m\u00e9dia. Dentre elas, um funcion\u00e1rio aposentado do departamento de agricultura, um ex-programador da IBM, tamb\u00e9m aposentado, e um jovem diretor de cinema. O que une os integrantes desse seleto grupo s\u00e3o certos jeitos de pensar e m\u00e9todos de an\u00e1lise, que podem ser aprendidos e praticados por qualquer um.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4234,"template":"","meta":[],"class_list":["post-4235","aam-videos","type-aam-videos","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/aam-videos\/4235","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/aam-videos"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/aam-videos"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4234"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/artica.capital\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4235"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}