Black Friday and end-of-year retail: the importance of the 4th quarter in investment decisions


Black Friday, which originated in the US in the 1960s and was introduced in Brazil in 2010, has become one of the country's biggest shopping events. Driven by the growth of e-commerce, it has become a landmark for retail, with an emphasis on products such as smartphones, clothing, cosmetics and home appliances. In addition, it is the kickoff to the peak sales season, which, together with Christmas, accounts for more than 20% of the retail sector's annual revenue.

The outlook for 2024 is promising, with unemployment falling and credit supply increasing, which will consequently boost consumption. With more people employed and greater access to credit, there is a tendency for demand for goods and services to rise, which should directly benefit retail this holiday season. However, challenges such as high inflation, high interest rates and economic instability still impact consumer confidence.

The 4th quarter is a period of increased attention for investors, given that on average 50% of retailers' EBITDA tends to be concentrated in this period, making it crucial for determining the results of these companies.

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