The Ártica Long Term management team discusses the book "Superforecasting – The Art and Science of Prediction," by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. The book presents Tetlock's conclusions, based on decades of research: those who are best at predicting future events aren't super geniuses using sophisticated systems. In fact, people with profiles very different from what we would imagine as "gurus" have achieved impressively above-average accuracy rates. Among them are a retired Department of Agriculture employee, a former IBM programmer, also retired, and a young film director. What unites the members of this select group are certain ways of thinking and analytical methods, which can be learned and practiced by anyone.

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